Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universität zu Köln gGmbH


The TIMCO model simulates long-term developments in the worldwide plant coal markets until 2030 whilst taking into account global interdependencies.


Client: International Energy Agency (IEA)

IEA Market Report Series: Coal 2020
The new report highlights recent global and regional developments in coal demand, supply, and trade. The report also provides an outlook to 2025 and analyzes coal supply costs, prices, and investment in new mines. "Coal 2020" is an integral part of the International Energy Agency's annual market report series. The extraordinary circumstances in 2020 have also affected coal markets, and a post-pandemic recovery is uncertain. China's role - the world's largest coal producer, importer, and consumer - is highlighted.

Auftraggeber: RWE Power AG

Effects of the coal phase-out act for lignite-fired power generation in the Rhenish mining area
The study examined the effects of the coal phase-out act on lignite-based power generation in the Rhenish mining area. The study focuses on an estimation of the lignite demand for electricity and heat supply of the Niederaussem, Neurath and Weisweiler power plants in the period 2021 to 2038. In addition, the effects of the planned coal phase-out on the development of national generation capacities, electricity generation, import balance, greenhouse gas emissions and wholesale electricity prices are analyzed.

Client: Wirtschaftsvereinigung Metalle e.V.

Coal phase-out: EWI develops methods for determining possible compensation payments for electricity intensive industries
How does the accelerated coal phase-out affect the wholesale electricity price - and how can this effect be estimated in the course of a compensation mechanism? In a new report commissioned by the WirtschaftsVereinigung Metalle e.V., scientists from EWI have developed and described three concrete methods for this purpose. In addition, they have analysed what effects the coal phase-out decided by the cabinet will have on the other electricity cost components of industrial companies. The background to this is that both the final report of the so called coal commission and the Kohleausstiegsgesetz passed by the German Cabinet call for a compensation mechanism. This instrument is intended to compensate for possible electricity price increases that the coal phase-out may bring to the electricity intensive industry. The extent to which these compensatory measures are necessary to ensure the continued international competitiveness of German industry is not part of the report.

Client: International Energy Agency (IEA)

IEA Market Report Series: Coal 2019
The report finds that the rebound in global coal demand continued in 2018, driven by growth in coal power generation, which reached an all-time high. Although coal power generation is estimated to have declined in 2019, this appears to have resulted from particular circumstances in some specific regions and is unlikely to be the start of a lasting trend. Global coal demand is expected to remain broadly stable over the next five years, supported by robust growth in major Asian markets.

Own publication in cooperation with the German Energy Agency (dena)

Impulse for the current climate policy debate: Assessments based on the dena lead study Integrated Energy Transition
Together with the German Energy Agency (dena), EWI has examined developments in power generation and the end-consumer sectors of buildings, industry and transport since the publication of the "dena Lead Study Integrated Energy Transition ". The analysis compares the changes between 2015, the base year of the dena study Integrated Energy Transition, and today with the transformation paths and model results in 2030. The EWI figures show: The efficiency improvements in the sectors assumed in the dena study cannot be observed. Regarding the expansion of renewable energies, particularly in wind energy, a significant decline is expected. Various indicators show that there are currently no incentives for a rapid and cross-sectoral reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Based on the analysis of the key figures by the EWI, dena develops comprehensive recommendations for action so that Germany can still achieve the its climate target in 2030.

Client: Ministry of Economy, Innovation, Digitalization and Energy of the state of North Rhine-Westphalia (MWIDE)

Effects of the phase-out of coal-fired power generation by 2038 on the electricity market, CO2 emissions and selected industries
At the end of January, the Coal Commission presented its final report. The EWI examined the effects of that report on behalf of MWIDE NRW (Ministry of Economic Affairs, Innovation, Digitalisation and Energy of North Rhine-Westphalia). The European electricity market model DIMENSION+ was used to compare the developments of a reference scenario with those of the phase-out scenario. Based on this analysis and further investigation, an international comparison of electricity prices for selected power-intensive industries was made. In the scenario analysis, the EWI reaches the following key results: The recommended exit path makes it possible to achieve the 2030 climate target for the energy sector even with a moderate increase in demand for electricity. Whereas this target is clearly missed in the reference scenario. However, in the coal phase-out scenario, an ambitious expansion of the number of peak-load power plants by 2025 is necessary in order to ensure security of supply. Electricity prices will rise significantly in both scenarios due to rising prices for CO2 certificates. For the German industrial companies considered, electricity prices are rising relatively strongly in both scenarios compared with foreign prices. Aid payments to compensate indirect CO2 costs (so-called electricity price compensation) can reduce the increase in electricity prices.

Client: International Energy Agency (IEA)

IEA Market Report Series: Coal 2018

Client: International Energy Agency (IEA)

IEA Coal 2017 Market and Analysis Report

Client: British Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS)

Fossil Fuel Price Projections Expert Panel: Final Report
The BEIS Fossil Fuel Price Assumptions for 2017 present low, central and high assumptions for the wholesale prices of oil, gas and coal for the UK out to 2040. ewi ER&S managing director Dr. Harald Hecking was part of an external expert panel that reviewed the assumptions in an additional report.

Client: International Energy Agency

Medium-Term Coal Market Report 2016

Funding by British Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy

Fossil Fuel Price Projections Expert Panel

Client: ewi ER&S

Economic Impacts of a German Coal Phase-Out on the Power Markets in Germany and the EU
With the study „Economic Impacts of a German Coal Phase-Out on the Power Markets in Germany and the EU“, ewi ER&S takes up a proposal made by the German think tank Agora Energiewende in January 2016 concerning a coal phase-out in Germany. The proposal suggests a combination of two policy measures for the power sector. First, it encourages an early decommissioning of the German coal-fired power plants up to 2040 and, secondly, a retirement of emission allowances from the European emissions trading system in the amount of the mitigated CO2 emissions resulting from the coal phase-out. Based on ewi’s power market model DIMENSION, the study investigates the additional costs and distributional effects of this double-measure for the German and European power markets. The coal phase-out is assessed by economic theory and its projected costs are compared to the amount of CO2 abated.

Funding by British Department of Energy & Climate Change

DECC 2015 Coal Price Scenarios – Peer review

Client: International Energy Agency

Medium-term Coal Market Report 2015

Client: International Energy Agency

Medium-term Coal Market Report 2014

Client: International Energy Agency

Medium-term Coal Market Report 2013

Auftraggeber: Internationale Energieagentur

Medium-term Coal Market Report 2012

Client: International Energy Agency

Medium-term Coal Market Report 2011

Working Paper

01Innovation in Clean Coal Technologies: Empirical Evidence from Firm-Level Patent Data

Jürgen Kruse, Heike Wetzel
February 2016

01Assessing Market Structures in Resource Markets – An Empirical Analysis of the Market for Metallurgical Coal using Various Equilibrium Models

Stefan Lorenczik, Timo Panke
May 2015

02Modeling Strategic Investment Decisions in Spatial Markets

Stefan Lorenczik, Raimund Malischek, Johannes Trüby
April 2014

01Quantity-setting Oligopolies in Complementary Input Markets – the Case of Iron Ore and Coking Coal

Harald Hecking, Timo Panke
February 2014

02Strategic Behaviour in International Metallurgical Coal Markets

Johannes Trüby
September 2012

01How are investment decisions in the steam coal market affected by demand uncertainty and buyer-side market power?

Moritz Paulus
February 2012

01Market structure scenarios in international steam coal trade

Johannes Trüby, Moritz Paulus
April 2011

02Have Prices of Internationally Traded Steam Coal been Marginal Cost based?

Johannes Trüby, Moritz Paulus
October 2010

01Global Steam Coal Supply Costs in the Face of Chinese Infrastructure Investment Decisions

Moritz Paulus, Johannes Trüby
September 2010


02Economic Growth in the USA and Germany 1960-2013: The Underestimated Role of Energy

Dietmar Lindenberger, Florian Weiser, Tobias Winkler, Reiner Kümmel
In: BioPhysical Economics and Resource Quality, Vol. 2 (3), Article 10.

01Aktuelle Entwicklungen auf den Kohle- und Gasmärkten und ihre Rückwirkungen auf die Merit Order

Harald Hecking, Eren Çam, Max Schönfisch, Simon Schulte
In: et - Energiewirtschaftliche Tagesfragen, Vol. 67 (6), pp. 34-38.

05Ökonomische Effekte eines deutschen Kohleausstiegs

Harald Hecking, Jürgen Kruse, Martin Paschmann, Alexander Polisadov, Theresa Wildgrube
In: et – Energiewirtschaftliche Tagesfragen, Vol. 66 (11), pp. 27-29.

04Ökonomische Effekte eines deutschen Kohleausstiegs

Harald Hecking
In: THEMEN:magazin ENERGIE, Vol. 3/4 2016, pp. 17-19.

03Assessing market structures in resource markets – An empirical analysis of the market for metallurgical coal using various equilibrium models

Stefan Lorenczik, Timo Panke
In: Energy Economics, Vol. 59, pp. 179-187.

02Twenty-First Century, the Century of Coal? CO2 Prices to Curb Coal Demand

Harald Hecking
In: Oxford Journal of Economic Policy, Vol. 32(2), pp. 260-281.

01COP 21 – Euphorie, Ernüchterung und Perspektiven für globale Treibhausgasminderung

Marc Oliver Bettzüge, Jakob Peter
In: ifo Schnelldienst, Vol. 69 (3), pp. 26-29.

02The Global Markets for Coking and Iron Ore – Complementary Goods, Integrated Mining Companies and Strategic Behavior

Harald Hecking, Timo Panke
In: Energy Economics, Vol. 52, Part A, pp. 26-28, Vol. 52, Part A, pp. 26-28.

01An Assessment of Mining Efficiency in Turkish Lignite Industry.

Volkan Ş. Ediger, Istemi Berk, Mücella Ersoy
In: Resources Policy, Vol. 45, pp. 44-51.

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