Coal

How does the accelerated coal phase-out affect the wholesale electricity price - and how can this effect be estimated in the course of a compensation mechanism? In a new report commissioned by the WirtschaftsVereinigung Metalle e.V., scientists from EWI have developed and described three concrete methods for this purpose. In addition, they have analysed what effects the coal phase-out decided by the cabinet will have on the other electricity cost components of industrial companies. The background to this is that both the final report of the so called coal commission and the Kohleausstiegsgesetz passed by the German Cabinet call for a compensation mechanism. This instrument is intended to compensate for possible electricity price increases that the coal phase-out may bring to the electricity intensive industry. The extent to which these compensatory measures are necessary to ensure the continued international competitiveness of German industry is not part of the report.

Together with the German Energy Agency (dena), EWI has examined developments in power generation and the end-consumer sectors of buildings, industry and transport since the publication of the "dena Lead Study Integrated Energy Transition ". The analysis compares the changes between 2015, the base year of the dena study Integrated Energy Transition, and today with the transformation paths and model results in 2030. The EWI figures show: The efficiency improvements in the sectors assumed in the dena study cannot be observed. Regarding the expansion of renewable energies, particularly in wind energy, a significant decline is expected. Various indicators show that there are currently no incentives for a rapid and cross-sectoral reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Based on the analysis of the key figures by the EWI, dena develops comprehensive recommendations for action so that Germany can still achieve the its climate target in 2030.

At the end of January, the Coal Commission presented its final report. The EWI examined the effects of that report on behalf of MWIDE NRW (Ministry of Economic Affairs, Innovation, Digitalisation and Energy of North Rhine-Westphalia). The European electricity market model DIMENSION+ was used to compare the developments of a reference scenario with those of the phase-out scenario. Based on this analysis and further investigation, an international comparison of electricity prices for selected power-intensive industries was made. In the scenario analysis, the EWI reaches the following key results: The recommended exit path makes it possible to achieve the 2030 climate target for the energy sector even with a moderate increase in demand for electricity. Whereas this target is clearly missed in the reference scenario. However, in the coal phase-out scenario, an ambitious expansion of the number of peak-load power plants by 2025 is necessary in order to ensure security of supply. Electricity prices will rise significantly in both scenarios due to rising prices for CO₂ certificates. For the German industrial companies considered, electricity prices are rising relatively strongly in both scenarios compared with foreign prices. Aid payments to compensate indirect CO₂ costs (so-called electricity price compensation) can reduce the increase in electricity prices.

The BEIS Fossil Fuel Price Assumptions for 2017 present low, central and high assumptions for the wholesale prices of oil, gas and coal for the UK out to 2040. ewi ER&S managing director Dr. Harald Hecking was part of an external expert panel that reviewed the assumptions in an additional report.

With the study „Economic Impacts of a German Coal Phase-Out on the Power Markets in Germany and the EU“, ewi ER&S takes up a proposal made by the German think tank Agora Energiewende in January 2016 concerning a coal phase-out in Germany. The proposal suggests a combination of two policy measures for the power sector. First, it encourages an early decommissioning of the German coal-fired power plants up to 2040 and, secondly, a retirement of emission allowances from the European emissions trading system in the amount of the mitigated CO₂ emissions resulting from the coal phase-out. Based on ewi’s power market model DIMENSION, the study investigates the additional costs and distributional effects of this double-measure for the German and European power markets. The coal phase-out is assessed by economic theory and its projected costs are compared to the amount of CO₂ abated.