Models
01COLUMBUS
The COLUMBUS model simulates possible developments in the global natural gas market until 2040 whilst taking into account worldwide interdependencies.
02TIGER
The TIGER model is a market model of the European gas infrastructure. It simulates daily gas flow within the European gas market, including production, pipeline transport, liquid gas imports and gas storage.
Studies
Client: Zukunft Erdgas e.V.
Discussion of future challenges of supply security in the electricity market 2.0
It is questionable whether the current design of the electricity market will be able to guarantee the current level of supply security in the future. This is because the decline in conventional generation and the simultaneous expansion of supply-dependent renewable energies pose challenges for the market. This is the result of a new study commissioned by Zukunft Erdgas e.V. and carried out by the Institute of Energy Economics at the University of Cologne (EWI).
Funding by: German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF)
Starting Conditions for the Marketing of Demand Flexibility: Status Quo Analysis and Metastudy – 2nd version
This study by EWI, Fraunhofer FIT and FIM is part of the research project SynErgie which is funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research for the enabling of the energy intensive industries in Germany to adapt the demand for electricity to the increasingly fluctuating supply of electricity. This study first describes the fundamentals of electricity market design and the legal framework. The reference to the application to industrial processes is always taken and potential barriers to the participation of flexible demand processes are worked through. The analysis serves the cluster-wide information about the status quo of market structures and regulatory framework conditions. In addition, the project partners analyze scientific findings on the subject of demand flexibility and prepare them in a comprehensive meta-study.
Client: Own publication
The Trilateral Gas Talks: What would an interruption of Russian gas exports via Ukraine mean for EU consumers?
Gas supplies are secured for this winter – even if the current negotiations between the EU Commission, the Russian company Gazprom and the Ukrainian company Naftogaz over gas supplies from Russia via Ukraine to Europe should fail. Ten years after the Russian-Ukrainian gas conflict, the current gas supply contract expires at the end of the year. In a study entitled “The Trilateral Gas Talks: What would an interruption of Russian gas exports via Ukraine mean for EU consumers?”, EWI examined how a failure of the negotiations and a resulting interruption of gas supplies, as in 2009, would affect consumers in Europe.
Own publication in cooperation with the German Energy Agency (dena)
Impulse for the current climate policy debate: Assessments based on the dena lead study Integrated Energy Transition
Together with the German Energy Agency (dena), EWI has examined developments in power generation and the end-consumer sectors of buildings, industry and transport since the publication of the "dena Lead Study Integrated Energy Transition ". The analysis compares the changes between 2015, the base year of the dena study Integrated Energy Transition, and today with the transformation paths and model results in 2030. The EWI figures show: The efficiency improvements in the sectors assumed in the dena study cannot be observed. Regarding the expansion of renewable energies, particularly in wind energy, a significant decline is expected. Various indicators show that there are currently no incentives for a rapid and cross-sectoral reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Based on the analysis of the key figures by the EWI, dena develops comprehensive recommendations for action so that Germany can still achieve the its climate target in 2030.
Client: Ministry of Economy, Innovation, Digitalization and Energy of the state of North Rhine-Westphalia (MWIDE)
Effects of the phase-out of coal-fired power generation by 2038 on the electricity market, CO2 emissions and selected industries
At the end of January, the Coal Commission presented its final report. The EWI examined the effects of that report on behalf of MWIDE NRW (Ministry of Economic Affairs, Innovation, Digitalisation and Energy of North Rhine-Westphalia). The European electricity market model DIMENSION+ was used to compare the developments of a reference scenario with those of the phase-out scenario. Based on this analysis and further investigation, an international comparison of electricity prices for selected power-intensive industries was made.
In the scenario analysis, the EWI reaches the following key results: The recommended exit path makes it possible to achieve the 2030 climate target for the energy sector even with a moderate increase in demand for electricity. Whereas this target is clearly missed in the reference scenario. However, in the coal phase-out scenario, an ambitious expansion of the number of peak-load power plants by 2025 is necessary in order to ensure security of supply. Electricity prices will rise significantly in both scenarios due to rising prices for CO2 certificates. For the German industrial companies considered, electricity prices are rising relatively strongly in both scenarios compared with foreign prices. Aid payments to compensate indirect CO2 costs (so-called electricity price compensation) can reduce the increase in electricity prices.
Supported by the state of North Rhine-Westphalia
Final report of Virtuelles Institut Strom zu Gas und Wärme
The „Virtual Institute Power to Gas and Heat“ (Virtuelles Institut Strom zu Gas und Wärme – VI SGW) is a consortium of seven scientific and technical institutes funded by the state of North Rhine-Westphalia and by the Cluster EnergieForschung of EnergieAgentur.NRW, which together conduct research on flexibility options for the future power-gas-heating integrated system. Alongside in-depth research on innovative technology pathways and energy system transformations, the work presented also includes the construction of a demonstration facility at the “Gas und Wärme” Institute in Essen.
The Virtual Institute submitted the results of its work in five volumes. The Management Summary provides an overview of the results of the research that was carried out in the VI SGW project between 2015 to 2017. Since the results of the cooperation are extensive, the Management Summary is designed to aid the reader in understanding the structure of the analysis and allowing topics of interest to be quickly located within the five volumes. The five volumes of the final report are “Volume I: System and Location Analyses”; “Volume II: Analyses of Technology Pathways”; “Volume III: Accompanying Experimental Research”; “Volume IV: Appendix to Volumes I-III”; “Volume V: Technology Datasheets”.
ewi ER&S is a partner and co-coordinator of the Virtual Institute SGW project, coordinating and contributing to “Volume I: System and Location Analyses” as well as contributing to “Volume II: Analyses of Technology Pathways” and “Volume V: Technology Datasheets”.
The Management Summary and all volumes of the final report can be found on the project’s website via the external link below.
Client: ewi ER&S and The Gas Value Chain Company
The underrated long-term relevance of gas in the decarbonizing German energy space
‘ewi ER&S’ and ‘The Gas Value Chain Company’ have extracted the considerations and arguments addressing the long-term relevance of gas in the decarbonizing German energy space in various studies, with strong focus on the ‘dena- Leitstudie’ “Integrierte Energiewende”. They compare a scenario labelled “Electrons” - implying a high degree of electrification and lower use of gas – with a scenario labelled “Molecules”, the latter implying a higher degree of direct gas use in all sectors.
Client: Nord Stream 2
Nord Stream 2 and its effects on European wholesale power prices
On behalf of Nord Stream 2, ewi ER&S analyzed the effects of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline on European wholesale power prices. The study shows that European electricity prices will be between 2.2 to 4.3 €/MWh lower (a 5% to 8% reduction) in a Low LNG price scenario, and 6.5 to 10.7 €/MWh lower in a High LNG price scenario (a 12% to 16% reduction). These lower prices result in a benefit to European consumers of €7bn to €14bn per year in the Low LNG price scenario and €21bn to €35bn per year in the High LNG price scenario.
Client: ewi ER&S
Study comparison sector coupling
In April 2018 ewi ER&S published the study "Kosteneffiziente Umsetzung der Sektorenkopplung" on behalf of the Ministry of Economics, Innovation, Digitisation and Energy of North Rhine-Westphalia. In June 2018, the "dena-Leitstudie Integrierte Energiewende" was published with ewi ER&S as the principal scientific assessor. Both studies analyse cross-sector strategies for achieving climate targets in the medium and long term. Within the framework of the "Studienvergleich Sektorenkopplung ", similarities and differences in the design of the study are pointed out transparently and the differences in the results are presented in detail.
Client: Deutsche Energie-Agentur (dena)
dena-Leitstudie Integrierte Energiewende (dena Study on Integrated Energy Transition)
The dena-Leitstudie Integrierte Energiewende develops and compares transformation pathes for the energy system in Germany with the objective to attain the climate-political goals by 2050. It pursues an innovative cross-sector scenario approach. At the same time, it is based on the branch knowledge of more than 60 partners from all relevant sectors and on the continuuos exchange with important actors from politics, society and science. The objective is to give impulses for designing the energy system by 2050. ewi ER&S is the main scientific advisor to the study. The central results of the study say that Germany will be able to attain its goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80 as well as by 95 % up to the year 2050 if the strains in all sectors are increased. Therefore, the roll-out and system integration of renewable energy sources must be forced, the end energy consumption has to be reduced by extensive energy efficiency efforts, and synthetic regenerative energy sources must be used on a big scale. A broad mix of technologies and energy sources makes the transformation of the energy system more cost-efficient than a fortified use of electricity-based applications.
Client: Nord Stream 2
Central European Gas Market Congestion Analysis
The study assesses whether the Nord Stream 2 pipeline contributes to a division of European gas markets. It demonstrates that the Nord Stream 2 pipeline cannot be used for market separation, under conditions of existing pipeline capacity and local gas consumption. This is due to the fact that in the European internal market, according to the EU’s own market rules, the importers and thus also the consumers are protected against such behaviour. Even if under increased gas demand in East Europe, such a strategy for splitting the market would be neither successful nor effective.
Funding by Deutscher Verein des Gas- und Wasserfaches (DVGW)
Final report: The role of Power-to-gas in the context of the energy transition
The study examines, from an economical perspective, the role power-to-gas (PtG) technologies may play in interlinking various sectors (namely electricity, heat and transport). The use of PtG technologies is analyzed for a wide range of applications including chemical storage, PtG in the industrial sector, the (potential) reduction of extensions in the high-voltage grid, power to heat (PtH) in the heating sector and power-to-gas-to-liquid (PtGtL) fuels for road transport.
Client: British Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS)
Fossil Fuel Price Projections Expert Panel: Final Report
The BEIS Fossil Fuel Price Assumptions for 2017 present low, central and high assumptions for the wholesale prices of oil, gas and coal for the UK out to 2040. ewi ER&S managing director Dr. Harald Hecking was part of an external expert panel that reviewed the assumptions in an additional report.
Client: Gelsenwasser, Open Grid Europe und RheinEnergie
The energy market in 2030 and 2050 – The contribution of gas and heat infrastructure to an efficient CO2 reduction
The study examines which contribution current gas and heat infrastructure can make to an efficient minimization of greenhouse gas by 2030 and 2050 respective. Therefore the study uses a complete energy system model to quantify two possible scenarios for a greenhouse gas reduction correspondent to Germany’s 2030 and 2050 climate goals. In the “Revolution” scenario a forced electrification of final energy consumption is prescribed by the government, so that gas and heat infrastructures will more and more lose importance. In spite of the extensive electrification this is not an “all-electric” scenario, but will clearly develop in that direction. In the “Evolution” scenario there are no governmental prescriptions regarding certain technologies, so that current gas and heat infrastructure can be used continuously as long as it is economically profitable. The focus of the study lies in power and heat markets.
Auftraggeber: Nord Stream 2
Identifying Key Assumptions for Evaluating Nord Stream 2’s Impact on the European Natural Gas Market
Compared to what ewi ER&S found in the study on "Impacts of Nord Stream 2 on the EU natural gas market", the results of Regional Centre for Energy Policy Research (REKK) of Hungary yield different results on the price effects. This study shows that different assumptions about LNG import prices, Ukrainian transit capacities and the contracts of using them, and intra-EU infrastructure expansions are crucial to explain the differences between the ewi ER&S results and those of REKK.
Client: Deutsche Energie-Agentur (dena), Die Allianz für Gebäude-Energie-Effizienz (geea)
Gebäudestudie – Szenarien für eine marktwirtschaftliche Klima- und Ressourcenschutzpolitik 2050 im Gebäudesektor
The Buildings Study (Gebäudestudie), initiated by the members of the Allianz für Gebäude-Energie-Effizienz (geea), provides an economic analysis of the buildings sector. It investigates how the transformation of the buildings sector can be accomplished by an interplay of building shell, installation technology and a changed energy production, to reach an attainment of reducing greenhouse gases by 80% and by 95%. The study was created in the context of the dena-Leitstudie Integrierte Energiewende (Integrated Energy Transition). ewi ER&S is the main economic reviewer of the study, cooperating with FIW and ITG as technological reviewers.
Client: Deutsche Energie-Agentur (dena)
dena-Leitstudie Integrierte Energiewende – Zwischenfazit
Sorry, this entry is only available in German.
Client: Nord Stream 2
Impacts of Nord Stream 2 on the EU natural gas market
This study focuses on the impacts of the offshore pipeline Nord Stream 2 on European Union (EU) natural gas markets (gas flows and gas prices). Since the impact of Nord Stream 2 crucially depends on the competition between Russian gas and global LNG markets, a combination of the global gas market model COLUMBUS and the European gas infrastructure model TIGER is applied in the analysis. The study finds a price decreasing effect of Nord Stream 2 in the EU-28 overall as well as in each member state individually due to reduced LNG imports if Nord Stream 2 is available compared to a case in which it is not available.
Client: ewi ER&S
Future European Gas Transmission Bottlenecks in Differing Supply and Demand Scenarios
As previous studies by ewi ER&S and the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) showed, there are bottlenecks in the European gas transmission grid. Especially between Germany and Italy, Germany and Austria as well as between the two French market areas, bottlenecks exist. This study focuses on the question if those bottlenecks persist in future. Therefore, two scenarios of OIES with high and low Asian gas demand which influences the European LNG supply are simulated in the European gas infrastructure model TIGER. Infrastructure extensions that are needed to realize the assumptions concerning demand and supply are modelled. The results indicate that especially in the scenario with high Asian demand (low LNG imports to Europe) bottlenecks persist in the European gas infrastructure in 2030.
Funding by German Federal Foreign Office
Options for Gas Supply Diversification for the EU and Germany in the next Two Decades
In cooperation with the European Centre for Energy and Resource Security (EUCERS) ewi ER&S investigates prospects and options for the European gas supply in the next two decades given a variety of scenarios.
Client: ewi ER&S
European gas grid through the eye of the TIGER: investigating bottlenecks in pipeline flows by modelling history
In cooperation with the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, ewi ER&S applied its TIGER model to investigate historic bottlenecks in the European gas grid that gave rise to price de-linkages between different market areas.
Client: Stiftung Mercator
Funding by British Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy
Client: ewi ER&S
Rethinking Entry-Exit: Two new tariff models to foster competition and security of supply in the EU gas market
Sorry, this entry is only available in German.
Client: EWI
The 2014 Ukrainian crisis: Europe’s increased security position
Sorry, this entry is only available in German.
Client: EWI
EWI Security of Supply Update: Simulation of current gas market developments in Europe with a special focus on Germany
Simulation of current gas market developments in Europe with a special focus on Germany.
Funding by: Federal Ministry for Innovation, Science and Research of the State of North Rhine-Westphalia
Virtuelles Institut Strom zu Gas und Wärme—Entwicklung einer Forschungsagenda für NRW
Sorry, this entry is only available in German.
Client: EWI
Addendum to the study “An Embargo of Russian Gas and Security of Supply in Europe”
Sorry, this entry is only available in German.
Client: EWI
An Embargo of Russian Gas and Security of Supply in Europe
Sorry, this entry is only available in German.
Client: Joint commissioning by Wintershall/Statoil
Potenziale von Erdgas als CO2-Vermeidungsoption
Sorry, this entry is only available in German.
Client: German Federal Network Agency, ERGEG
European Gas Supply: The Next Decade. A Model-based Analysis of Infrastructure Projects and Gas Market Integration in Europe with Special Focus on Security of Supply Scenarios
Sorry, this entry is only available in German.
Working Paper
02Natural Gas Transits and Market Power – The Case of Turkey
Simon Schulte, Florian Weiser
July 2017
[PDF-Download]
01Turkey’s Role in Natural Gas – Becoming a Transit Country?
Istemi Berk, Simon Schulte
January 2017
[PDF-Download]
02The Law of one Price in Global Natural Gas Markets – A Threshold Cointegration Analysis
Sebastian Nick, Benjamin Tischler
November 2014
[PDF-Download]
01CO2 abatement policies in the power sector under an oligopolistic gas market
Harald Hecking
September 2014
[PDF-Download]
03Price Formation and Intertemporal Arbitrage within a Low-Liquidity Framework: Empirical Evidence from European Natural Gas Markets
Sebastian Nick
August 2013
[PDF-Download]
02Supply disruptions and regional price effects in a spatial oligopoly – an application to the global gas market
Christian Growitsch, Harald Hecking, Timo Panke
June 2013
[PDF-Download]
01What Drives Natural Gas Prices? – A Structural VAR Approach
Sebastian Nick, Stefan Thoenes
January 2013
[PDF-Download]
02COLUMBUS – A global gas market model
Harald Hecking, Timo Panke
April 2012
[PDF-Download]
01Price Convergence and Information Efficiency in German Natural Gas Markets
Christian Growitsch, Marcus Stronzik, Rabindra Nepal
March 2012
[PDF-Download]
01Civil unrest in North Africa – Risks for natural gas supply?
Stefan Lochner, Caroline Dieckhöner
April 2011
[PDF-Download]
01Simulating security of supply effects of the Nabucco and South Stream projects for the European natural gas market
Caroline Dieckhöner
December 2010
[PDF-Download]
Articles
05Economic Growth in the USA and Germany 1960-2013: The Underestimated Role of Energy
Dietmar Lindenberger, Florian Weiser, Tobias Winkler, Reiner Kümmel
In: BioPhysical Economics and Resource Quality, Vol. 2 (3), Article 10.
[Link]
04Aktuelle Entwicklungen auf den Kohle- und Gasmärkten und ihre Rückwirkungen auf die Merit Order
Harald Hecking, Eren Çam, Max Schönfisch, Simon Schulte
In: et - Energiewirtschaftliche Tagesfragen, Vol. 67 (6), pp. 34-38.
[Link]
03Nord Stream 2: Gazproms Antwort auf einen strategischen Nachteil?
Harald Hecking, Simon Schulte
In: et - Energiewirtschaftliche Tagesfragen, Vol. 67 (5), pp. 31-34.
[Link]
02An Economic Assessment of Turkey’s Future Role in European Oil and Gas Supply Security
Istemi Berk, Eren Çam, Simon Schulte
In: Turkey as an Energy Hub? Contributions on Turkey's Role in EU Energy Supply, pp. 143-186.
[Link]
01Geopolitical Dynamics in the European Gas Market from an Economic Perspective
Marc Oliver Bettzüge, Harald Hecking
In: Turkey as an Energy Hub? Contributions on Turkey's Role in EU Energy Supply, pp. 125-142.
[Link]
01COP 21 – Euphorie, Ernüchterung und Perspektiven für globale Treibhausgasminderung
Marc Oliver Bettzüge, Jakob Peter
In: ifo Schnelldienst, Vol. 69 (3), pp. 26-29.
[Link]
03Security of Supply in Europe during the Ukraine Crisis
Harald Hecking
In: ISPSW Strategy Series, Vol. 360..
[Link]
02Die Versorgungssicherheit Europas in der Ukrainekrise.
Harald Hecking
In: Energie für Deutschland. Fakten, Perpektiven und Positionen im globalen Kontext. Weltenergierat, pp.81-84, 2015, pp. 81-84.
[Link]
01An embargo of Russian gas and security of supply in Europe
Harald Hecking, Christopher John, Florian Weiser
In: Zeitschrift für Energiewirtschaft : ZfE.,ISSN 0343-5377, ZDB-ID 1328918. - Bd. 39.2015, 1, S. 63-73, Vol. 39 (1), pp. 63-73.
[Link]
01Supply Disruptions and Regional Price Effects in a Spatial Oligopoly – An Application to the Global Gas Market.
Christian Growitsch, Harald Hecking, Timo Panke
In: Review of International Economics, Vol. 22 (5), pp. 944-975.
[Link]
01European Natural Gas Infrastructure: The Impact of Market Developments on Gas Flows and Physical Market Integration.
Caroline Dieckhöner, Stefan Lochner, Dietmar Lindenberger
In: Applied Energy, Vol. 102, pp. 994-1003.
[Link]
02Simulating the Effects of European Natural Gas Infrastructure Developments.
Caroline Dieckhöner, Stefan Lochner, Dietmar Lindenberger
In: Oil Gas European Magazine, Vol. 36 (4), pp. 174–179.
01The Impact of Recent Gas Market Developments on Long-Term Projections for Global Gas Supply.
Stefan Lochner, Jan Richter
In: Zeitschrift für Energiewirtschaft, Vol. 34(1), pp. 61–69.
[Link]