Natural Gas

Final report of Virtuelles Institut Strom zu Gas und Wärme

The „Virtual Institute Power to Gas and Heat“ (Virtuelles Institut Strom zu Gas und Wärme – VI SGW) is a consortium of seven scientific and technical institutes funded by the state of North Rhine-Westphalia and by the Cluster EnergieForschung of EnergieAgentur.NRW, which together conduct research on flexibility options for the future power-gas-heating integrated system. Alongside in-depth research on innovative technology pathways and energy system transformations, the work presented also includes the construction of a demonstration facility at the “Gas und Wärme” Institute in Essen.The Virtual Institute submitted the results of its work in five volumes. The Management Summary provides an overview of the results of the research that was carried out in the VI SGW project between 2015 to 2017. Since the results of the cooperation are extensive, the Management Summary is designed to aid the reader in understanding the structure of the analysis and allowing topics of interest to be quickly located within the five volumes. The five volumes of the final report are “Volume I: System and Location Analyses”; “Volume II: Analyses of Technology Pathways”; “Volume III: Accompanying Experimental Research”; “Volume IV: Appendix to Volumes I-III”; “Volume V: Technology Datasheets”. ewi ER&S is a partner and co-coordinator of the Virtual Institute SGW project, coordinating and contributing to “Volume I: System and Location Analyses” as well as contributing to “Volume II: Analyses of Technology Pathways” and “Volume V: Technology Datasheets”. The Management Summary and all volumes of the final report can be found on the project’s website via the external link below.

The underrated long-term relevance of gas in the decarbonizing German energy space

‘ewi ER&S’ and ‘The Gas Value Chain Company’ have extracted the considerations and arguments addressing the long-term relevance of gas in the decarbonizing German energy space in various studies, with strong focus on the ‘dena- Leitstudie’ “Integrierte Energiewende”. They compare a scenario labelled “Electrons” - implying a high degree of electrification and lower use of gas – with a scenario labelled “Molecules”, the latter implying a higher degree of direct gas use in all sectors.

Nord Stream 2 and its effects on European wholesale power prices

On behalf of Nord Stream 2, ewi ER&S analyzed the effects of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline on European wholesale power prices. The study shows that European electricity prices will be between 2.2 to 4.3 €/MWh lower (a 5% to 8% reduction) in a Low LNG price scenario, and 6.5 to 10.7 €/MWh lower in a High LNG price scenario (a 12% to 16% reduction). These lower prices result in a benefit to European consumers of €7bn to €14bn per year in the Low LNG price scenario and €21bn to €35bn per year in the High LNG price scenario.

Studienvergleich Sektorenkopplung

In April 2018 ewi ER&S published the study "Kosteneffiziente Umsetzung der Sektorenkopplung" on behalf of the Ministry of Economics, Innovation, Digitisation and Energy of North Rhine-Westphalia. In June 2018, the "dena-Leitstudie Integrierte Energiewende" was published with ewi ER&S as the principal scientific assessor. Both studies analyse cross-sector strategies for achieving climate targets in the medium and long term. Within the framework of the "Studienvergleich Sektorenkopplung ", similarities and differences in the design of the study are pointed out transparently and the differences in the results are presented in detail.

Workshop „Long-term Electricity System Planning“ for the Moroccan research pool ESMA

In the frame of this project funded by GIZ Morocco, ewi ER&S prepared and held a capacity-building workshop for Moroccan professors and members of the ministry of energy with the title "Introduction To Long-term Electricity System Planning“. The workshop was part of a study-trip by the Moroccan Research-Pool „Energy Systems Modeling and Analysis (ESMA)“. The goal of the Research-Pool ESMA and GIZ Morocco is to foster a local energy-system modeling community in order to support the political decision making process for the Moroccan energy transition and decarbonization pathway based on local competence. The workshop consisted of modules on different modeling techniques for investment and dispatch models in the energy sector, on scenario definition and interpretation as well as on the political decision making processes based on modeling studies.

dena-Leitstudie Integrierte Energiewende (dena Study on Integrated Energy Transition)

The dena-Leitstudie Integrierte Energiewende develops and compares transformation pathes for the energy system in Germany with the objective to attain the climate-political goals by 2050. It pursues an innovative cross-sector scenario approach. At the same time, it is based on the branch knowledge of more than 60 partners from all relevant sectors and on the continuuos exchange with important actors from politics, society and science. The objective is to give impulses for designing the energy system by 2050. ewi ER&S is the main scientific advisor to the study. The central results of the study say that Germany will be able to attain its goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80 as well as by 95 % up to the year 2050 if the strains in all sectors are increased. Therefore, the roll-out and system integration of renewable energy sources must be forced, the end energy consumption has to be reduced by extensive energy efficiency efforts, and synthetic regenerative energy sources must be used on a big scale. A broad mix of technologies and energy sources makes the transformation of the energy system more cost-efficient than a fortified use of electricity-based applications.

Central European Gas Market Congestion Analysis

The study assesses whether the Nord Stream 2 pipeline contributes to a division of European gas markets. It demonstrates that the Nord Stream 2 pipeline cannot be used for market separation, under conditions of existing pipeline capacity and local gas consumption. This is due to the fact that in the European internal market, according to the EU’s own market rules, the importers and thus also the consumers are protected against such behaviour. Even if under increased gas demand in East Europe, such a strategy for splitting the market would be neither successful nor effective.

Final report: The role of Power-to-gas in the context of the energy transition

The study examines, from an economical perspective, the role power-to-gas (PtG) technologies may play in interlinking various sectors (namely electricity, heat and transport). The use of PtG technologies is analyzed for a wide range of applications including chemical storage, PtG in the industrial sector, the (potential) reduction of extensions in the high-voltage grid, power to heat (PtH) in the heating sector and power-to-gas-to-liquid (PtGtL) fuels for road transport.

Fossil Fuel Price Projections Expert Panel: Final Report

The BEIS Fossil Fuel Price Assumptions for 2017 present low, central and high assumptions for the wholesale prices of oil, gas and coal for the UK out to 2040. ewi ER&S managing director Dr. Harald Hecking was part of an external expert panel that reviewed the assumptions in an additional report.

The energy market in 2030 and 2050 – The contribution of gas and heat infrastructure to an efficient CO2 reduction

The study examines which contribution current gas and heat infrastructure can make to an efficient minimization of greenhouse gas by 2030 and 2050 respective. Therefore the study uses a complete energy system model to quantify two possible scenarios for a greenhouse gas reduction correspondent to Germany’s 2030 and 2050 climate goals. In the “Revolution” scenario a forced electrification of final energy consumption is prescribed by the government, so that gas and heat infrastructures will more and more lose importance. In spite of the extensive electrification this is not an “all-electric” scenario, but will clearly develop in that direction. In the “Evolution” scenario there are no governmental prescriptions regarding certain technologies, so that current gas and heat infrastructure can be used continuously as long as it is economically profitable. The focus of the study lies in power and heat markets.

Identifying Key Assumptions for Evaluating Nord Stream 2’s Impact on the European Natural Gas Market

Compared to what ewi ER&S found in the study on "Impacts of Nord Stream 2 on the EU natural gas market", the results of Regional Centre for Energy Policy Research (REKK) of Hungary yield different results on the price effects. This study shows that different assumptions about LNG import prices, Ukrainian transit capacities and the contracts of using them, and intra-EU infrastructure expansions are crucial to explain the differences between the ewi ER&S results and those of REKK.

Gebäudestudie – Szenarien für eine marktwirtschaftliche Klima- und Ressourcenschutzpolitik 2050 im Gebäudesektor

The Buildings Study (Gebäudestudie), initiated by the members of the Allianz für Gebäude-Energie-Effizienz (geea), provides an economic analysis of the buildings sector. It investigates how the transformation of the buildings sector can be accomplished by an interplay of building shell, installation technology and a changed energy production, to reach an attainment of reducing greenhouse gases by 80% and by 95%. The study was created in the context of the dena-Leitstudie Integrierte Energiewende (Integrated Energy Transition). ewi ER&S is the main economic reviewer of the study, cooperating with FIW and ITG as technological reviewers.

dena-Leitstudie Integrierte Energiewende – Zwischenfazit

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Impacts of Nord Stream 2 on the EU natural gas market

This study focuses on the impacts of the offshore pipeline Nord Stream 2 on European Union (EU) natural gas markets (gas flows and gas prices). Since the impact of Nord Stream 2 crucially depends on the competition between Russian gas and global LNG markets, a combination of the global gas market model COLUMBUS and the European gas infrastructure model TIGER is applied in the analysis. The study finds a price decreasing effect of Nord Stream 2 in the EU-28 overall as well as in each member state individually due to reduced LNG imports if Nord Stream 2 is available compared to a case in which it is not available.

Future European Gas Transmission Bottlenecks in Differing Supply and Demand Scenarios

As previous studies by ewi ER&S and the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) showed, there are bottlenecks in the European gas transmission grid. Especially between Germany and Italy, Germany and Austria as well as between the two French market areas, bottlenecks exist. This study focuses on the question if those bottlenecks persist in future. Therefore, two scenarios of OIES with high and low Asian gas demand which influences the European LNG supply are simulated in the European gas infrastructure model TIGER. Infrastructure extensions that are needed to realize the assumptions concerning demand and supply are modelled. The results indicate that especially in the scenario with high Asian demand (low LNG imports to Europe) bottlenecks persist in the European gas infrastructure in 2030.

Options for Gas Supply Diversification for the EU and Germany in the next Two Decades

In cooperation with the European Centre for Energy and Resource Security (EUCERS) ewi ER&S investigates prospects and options for the European gas supply in the next two decades given a variety of scenarios.

European gas grid through the eye of the TIGER: investigating bottlenecks in pipeline flows by modelling history

In cooperation with the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, ewi ER&S applied its TIGER model to investigate historic bottlenecks in the European gas grid that gave rise to price de-linkages between different market areas.

Turkey as an Energy Hub

Fossil Fuel Price Projections Expert Panel

Rethinking Entry-Exit: Two new tariff models to foster competition and security of supply in the EU gas market

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The 2014 Ukrainian crisis: Europe’s increased security position

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EWI Security of Supply Update: Simulation of current gas market developments in Europe with a special focus on Germany

Simulation of current gas market developments in Europe with a special focus on Germany.

Virtuelles Institut Strom zu Gas und Wärme—Entwicklung einer Forschungsagenda für NRW

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Addendum to the study “An Embargo of Russian Gas and Security of Supply in Europe”

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An Embargo of Russian Gas and Security of Supply in Europe

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Potenziale von Erdgas als CO₂-Vermeidungsoption

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Unkonventionelles Erdgas in Europa – Effekte auf Versorgung, Nachfrage und Preise bis 2035

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Potenziale für Erdgas im Straßenverkehr – eine ökonomische Analyse

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European Gas Supply: The Next Decade. A Model-based Analysis of Infrastructure Projects and Gas Market Integration in Europe with Special Focus on Security of Supply Scenarios

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