The ramp-up of electrolysis capacity in Germany is progressing much more slowly than planned, according to the EWI electrolysis database. The target of 10 GW of electrolysis capacity by 2030 will probably be missed, according to an analysis by the EWI.
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EWI-Analysis: Electrolysis ramp-up in Germany is proceeding slowly
An evaluation of the EWI electrolysis database shows that the installed capacity of electrolysers in Germany currently stands at 181 MWel, with a further 1,3 GWel having reached a final investment decision (FID) or being under construction. This means that up to 1,5 GWel of electrolysis capacity could be in operation by the end of 2027.
In its analysis titled “Developments in the ramp-up of electrolysis in Germany,” the Institute of Energy Economics at the University of Cologne (EWI) examines the status quo and the latest developments in the ramp-up of electrolysis capacity in Germany, evaluating the institute’s own project database.
The 10 GW target will probably be missed
Compared to an evaluation conducted in August 2024, the electrolysis capacity in operation or with FID/under construction has increased. At 54 MW, Germany’s largest electrolyzer to date has now become operational. There are also several projects with more than 100 MWel for which an FID has been announced. However, almost 3 GWel of the planned projects have been removed from the database because they have either been canceled or no new information has been published for a long time. If all the projects announced up to 2030 are added together, a total capacity of 8.7 GWel could be achieved.
Looking at the projects that were scheduled to go into operation in 2025 as of August 2024, only about 30 percent of these projects were completed on time. Delays could also occur in projects announced for the near future: Although more than 20 projects with a planned commissioning date in 2026 have been announced, 14 of these projects—with a cumulative capacity of more than 1 GWel—have not yet reached an FID or no start of construction has been communicated. It is therefore questionable whether these will be realized within a year.
There are many reasons for the slow ramp-up of electrolysis capacity
“In addition to regulatory complexity and uncertainty, high investment and operating costs combined with relatively low consumer willingness to pay mean that only a few projects have achieved FID status so far,” says Dr. Ann-Kathrin Klaas, Head of Research Area at EWI, who conducted the analysis together with Carina Schmidt, Research Associate at EWI. In addition, the chicken-and-egg problem continues to exist, as supply, demand, and infrastructure must be developed simultaneously. “This can lead to coordination problems and delays in individual projects,” says Klaas.
