Only 1.5 GW of Electrolysis Capacity Secured by 2030

The hydrogen market is experiencing a slowdown: Currently, 181 MW of electrolysis capacity is in operation, with an additional 1,271 MW having received a final investment decision (FID) or being under construction. These projects could become operational by 2027 and provide approximately 4.3 TWh of green hydrogen. Hydrogen import pipelines are planned to operate in 2027, with a significant increase in capacity beginning in 2030. However, all import projects are in an early planning stage without a FID. In the “Hydrogen Monitor Q2/2026,” a team from the Institute of Energy Economics (EWI) at the University of Cologne, commissioned by the Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirt-schaft e. V. (BDEW), analyzes the current status of the hydrogen market ramp-up based on domestic production capacity for renewable and low-carbon hydrogen, hydrogen import capacity, and hydrogen consumption projects in energy-intensive industries as of end of March 2026.

An analysis of the EWI electrolysis database shows that only a small fraction of the electrolysis projects planned through 2030 have reached a final investment decision (FID) to date. In addition to projects already in operation or with an FID, over 7.2 GWel of electrolysis capacity is planned through 2030 for which no FID has yet been announced. Furthermore, there are two announced projects for the production of blue hydrogen using steam reforming of natural gas and CO₂ capture and storage, both of which have not yet reached FID. “Compared to surveys from recent years, the capacity of projects in operation and with FID has recently stagnated. At the same time, the capacity of announced projects without FID has declined since 2024,” says Dr.-Ing. Ann-Kathrin Klaas, Head of Research Area at EWI, who conducted the analysis together with Carina Schmidt, Michaele Diehl, and Lennart Kehl.

Significant increase in planned pipeline imports expected starting in 2030

The EWI import database tracks planned hydrogen import projects. The analysis shows that 22 pipeline-based import projects with a total capacity of approximately 65 GWh/h have been announced. As things stand, eleven of these projects are scheduled to come online by 2030, which corresponds to about half of the pipeline-based import capacity. The largest planned import capacities are located at the German border with Denmark and the Netherlands. In addition to cross-border hydrogen pipelines, the database also includes ammonia terminals, ammonia crackers, and SNG terminals. Green ammonia can be imported and used directly or processed into green hydrogen in a cracker. In Germany, two ammonia terminals are currently in operation, though they have so far imported fossil-based ammonia. Four additional ammonia terminals on the North Sea and Baltic Sea coasts have been announced, but these projects have not yet communicated a FID.

The EWI industry database tracks over 70 projects in energy-intensive industries that plan to use or are already using climate-friendly (green or blue) hydrogen. Thirteen projects were identified that are already using climate-friendly hydrogen in their production processes. These are largely research and pilot projects. At the same time, more than half of the recorded projects are still in an early planning stage and have not yet reached FID. The analysis by industry sector shows that the projects are concentrated in the metal production and processing, chemical, and petroleum processing sectors. Well-known examples include primary steel production sites such as the SALCOS project by Salzgitter AG or tkH₂Steel by Thyssenkrupp in Duisburg. Many of the projects plan to use an on-site electrolyzer to supply green hydrogen, meaning that the start of green hydrogen use is tied to the commissioning of the electrolyzer.

Electrolysis projects secure 4.3 TWh of hydrogen production per year

The recorded capacities allow for an estimate of future green hydrogen production and import volumes: Depending on utilization rates, production from electrolysis plants currently in operation could amount to approximately 0.5 TWh per year. If all domestic production projects with a current FID or under construction go into operation by 2030, annual production in Germany could reach approximately 4.3 TWh in 2030. Even if all announced electrolysis projects were to go into operation by 2030, annual domestic hydrogen production would remain below 30 TWh. “The National Hydrogen Strategy had forecast a demand for green hydrogen of 95 to 130 TWh by 2030. The majority of this volume would therefore have to be covered by imports, which, in turn, depend just as much on the implementation of the planned pipeline projects as on the implementation of foreign electrolysis projects,” says Klaas.