Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universität zu Köln gGmbH

Research Network for the Development of New Methods in Energy System Modelling (4NEMO)

Research Network for the Development of New Methods in Energy System Modelling (4NEMO)

ewi ER&S is a partner in the research network “Research Network for the Development of New Methods in Energy System Modelling (4NEMO)”. The joint project has two main objectives:
1. Coherence, comparability and transparency of energy models should be increased. This applies not only to modeling and publishing of model structures, but also to the consistency of data sets and technology approaches.
2. The integration of economic and societal factors and the associated characteristics of uncertainty in energy models should be improved.
ewi ER&S mainly examines uncertainties in energy models. For this purpose, an explicit consideration of uncertainties using stochastic optimization is to be implemented in the practice-proven investment and dispatch model DIMENSION. The assumption of perfect foresight is thereby dissolved, and at the same time path dependencies can be identified and risks of uncertainties quantified and evaluated. The illustration of uncertainties is carried out in discrete scenarios, which are determined by random drawing from distribution functions. Since the complexity (especially the required computational resources) of the models is increased by considering a large number of scenarios, the number of scenarios necessary is to be evaluated in order to adequately reflect the uncertainties. In order to simplify the optimization problem, a technique for dynamic scenario reduction, which is based on Monte Carlo simulations and clustering algorithms, is also to be developed. Ongoing model comparisons with the project partners ensure an increase in both coherence and transparency between the energy models.