Large heat pumps represent a possibility for replacing fossil fuel heat generators in heating grids and industry in the course of the heat transition. This analysis by the Institute of Energy Economics at the University of Cologne (EWI) reviews the current state of the art and challenges in the field of large heat pumps. In addition, empirical data on publicly announced large heat pump projects in Germany are collected and analyzed. Regression analysis is used to derive investment cost functions and compare them with values from the literature.
The results of the analysis “Large Heat Pumps: Market Ramp-up and Costs in Germany – an empirical Analysis” show that the market for large heat pumps is on the verge of a dynamic growth phase, with a sixfold increase in installed capacity announced by 2030. This widespread market ramp-up is reflected not only in the increasing number of projects but also in an increase in project-specific capacity. The main area of application is heat generation in heating networks. In the course of the market ramp-up, a change in the used heat sources takes place: While existing projects primarily use waste heat, planned projects are increasingly focusing on water bodies and wastewater as heat sources. An analysis of investment costs for existing projects shows that project-specific factors strongly dominate, and the correlation between capacity and investment costs is low. Economies of scale occur primarily in the form of fixed costs that are independent of capacity. In contrast, planned projects show significantly lower cost dispersion and a stronger influence of installed capacity on costs compared to existing projects. The investment costs of real projects are significantly higher than the cost estimates of many sources in the secondary literature. This finding underscores the importance of primary data for realistic cost estimates.
