The analysis “RFNBO-Compliant PPAs in Germany” examines the supply and demand of Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) until the year 2030. Methodologically, the study relies on a combination of sector-specific demand forecasts for industry, electrolyzers, data centers, and large-scale heat pumps, alongside an evaluation of current project pipelines and regulatory requirements. Market potentials for the German PPA market are derived by specifically considering the EU criteria for “renewable fuels of non-biological origin” (RFNBOs).
A key finding is that the RFNBO-compliant supply could reach 42 TWh, primarily driven by new offshore wind power, which covers the projected demand for electrolysis (34 TWh). However, as the total PPA potential of 80 TWh falls short of the projected overall demand growth of 87 TWh, significant market tightening is possible due to inter-sectoral competition.
