Replacing fossil energy carriers sustainably
Natural gas currently still plays an important role in Europe. In addition, a flourishing global trade in liquefied natural gas (LNG) is helping regionally oriented markets to grow together increasingly. EWI examines the role of gaseous energy carriers in the energy system of the future in Germany, Europe, and on the global market. This requires converting existing natural gas infrastructures and building up a central hydrogen network. In our analysis of gas markets, we simulate future natural gas and hydrogen flows, including in crisis situations such as global market disruptions. We also model network congestion, for example in peak-load situations, and its effects on the markets.
For this, we use EWI’s own models COLUMBUS (global gas market), ERIKSSON (global market for hydrogen and its derivatives), and TIGER (European gas and hydrogen infrastructure). The models COLUMBUS and ERIKSSON enable the simulation of scenarios on global price developments and the long-term development of the global markets for material energy carriers, as well as analyses of market power and import structures. TIGER represents the European market and its infrastructure in a high level of detail.
Domestic production and imports
The domestic production of hydrogen requires innovative projects. We analyze the investment and operating conditions as well as the costs of producing hydrogen in Germany. Model-based analyses with the EWI model SOPHIAA make it possible, for example, to simulate the operation of electrolyzers while taking market and technical constraints into account. Since Germany’s future hydrogen demand is likely not to be met domestically alone, EWI also examines the global potential for hydrogen production and various transport routes from a techno-economic perspective, for example with the EWI Global PtX Cost Tool.
Strategies for decarbonizing the end-use sectors
To reduce the high CO2 emissions in the consumption sectors of industry, transport, and buildings, these three sectors must switch more strongly to renewable energy carriers. There are several strategies for this: electrification, climate-neutral fuels, or carbon capture and storage. We examine the techno-economic framework conditions such as market maturity, costs, and infrastructure requirements for these decarbonization options.
The industrial sector faces several challenges in this regard. Process-related emissions cannot always be reduced by switching to renewable energy. In addition, industry in Germany and Europe competes internationally. Costs for reducing emissions can therefore only be passed on to end customers to a limited extent. The electrification of a wide range of industrial processes leads to a significant increase in electricity demand. Where electrification is not possible, hydrogen and synthetic fuels are used. Industry would thereby become the largest hydrogen consumer in a decarbonized energy system. Future demand volumes and costs are two key questions that EWI examines.
Shaping the heat transition cost-efficiently and sustainably
In the building sector, the two most important drivers of decarbonization are the energy-efficient renovation of buildings and the switch of heating systems to renewable energy sources. Fossil, climate-damaging energy carriers still cover the majority of heat demand to date. Heat pumps, which use electricity and ambient heat, are now widespread and are regarded as key technologies in the building sector owing to their high efficiency. In metropolitan areas, the use of (climate-neutral) district heating is often the cost-optimal solution.
The challenges we examine in this area are diverse: decarbonizing district heating networks requires integrated system planning that combines renewable heat sources and waste-heat potentials. We pursue this question with the institute’s own model DINO. The increasing electrification of building heat leads to higher electricity consumption, which places a greater burden on distribution grids. Investment cycles are long and the costs of new heating systems are high, as the EWI-Wärmekosten-Tool clearly illustrates. Landlords have little incentive to install more efficient and climate-friendly heating systems and to renovate buildings, since it is mainly tenants who benefit from the future savings (the so-called tenant–landlord dilemma).
Collaboration with EWI’s other research areas
Hydrogen is an important link between the sectors. It is therefore addressed in all research questions concerning the future energy system. Furthermore, the increasing electrification of end users leads to greater electricity and grid expansion needs. This results in strong intersections with the Electricity research area regarding the (system-beneficial) production of hydrogen with domestic electrolyzers and the decarbonization options of the end-use sectors. Together with the Regulation research area, we examine regulatory questions concerning the hydrogen market ramp-up and the heat transition.
Within the Hydrogen Research Program EWI addresses comprehensive questions about the future of energy carriers. With the Heat Transition Research Program EWI deals with the important aspects of a climate-neutral heat supply. Both research programs are funded by the Gesellschaft zur Förderung des EWI e.V. The aim of the research programs is public-interest-oriented and applied research at the highest academic level in economics.
