The EWI has published four brief analyses of energy policy proposals from the coalition agreement between the CDU, CSU and SPD. The results:
The relief on electricity consumption prices of at least 5 cent/kWh planned in the coalition agreement could cost the state budget around €25 billion per year. To achieve such a reduction in the end consumer price, the electricity tax would have to be lowered to the European minimum, grid fees and levies would have to be subsidised by the state and an industrial electricity price would have to be introduced. The relative relief would be highest for energy-intensive industry.
According to the coalition agreement, renewable energy plants should be fully refinanced on the market in the long term. This would result in these plants no longer being subsidised by the federal budget, but instead electricity customers would bear the entire costs. Against this background, the EWI has analysed various scenarios. Rising wholesale electricity prices, for example through higher CO2 pricing, would be the direct mechanism of action and would improve refinancing, but would contradict the goal of falling end consumer prices. Accordingly, rising market value factors and falling technology costs are the main levers for refinancing renewable energy sources on the market. Greater demand flexibility and prioritisation of cheaper renewable energy producers, particularly the prioritisation of large plants, can contribute to achieving the target.
The hydrogen core network is to be expanded to include routes in the south and east to connect further industrial centers and hydrogen storage facilities, as per the coalition agreement. The majority of industrial locations and storage facilities in Germany have already been considered in the design of the core network, the EWI shows. Industries such as aluminium and paper have production sites without a core grid connection. However, they are not necessarily dependent on the core grid as they have a decarbonization alternative with a high level of market maturity in the form of electrification. Future integrated network development plans for gas and hydrogen, which will be published every two years from 2026, can consider technological developments in the lime, cement and glass industries, demand surveys for individual production sites and storage expansion plans in the natural gas and hydrogen sector.
According to the coalition agreement, the so-called Heating Act is to be abolished. In public discourse, this refers to the amendment of the Buildings Energy Act (GEG) from October 2023. The new GEG is to be designed to be more technology-neutral and simpler. An amendment to the GEG is necessary anyway by May 2026 to implement the European Buildings Directive (EPBD). The EWI has compared the scope of the two documents: The GEG contains requirements for individual installations for heat supply, while the EPBD addresses the reduction of the primary energy demand of the entire building stock. The standard of the zero-emission building in the EPBD sets stricter requirements than the nearly zero-energy building in the GEG. The EPBD contains stricter requirements for refurbishment and building automation, whereas the GEG has stricter regulations for the installation of new heating systems.
