Europe Must More than Double Its LNG Imports

Since the war in the Middle East began at the end of February 2026, European gas prices at the short end have risen sharply: the front-month contract at the TTF trading hub climbed from around 31 to about 56 euros per megawatt hour – an increase of roughly 80 percent. At the same time, gas storage is unusually low. According to a new analysis by the Institute of Energy Economics at the University of Cologne (EWI), Europe would have to increase its LNG imports sharply before winter in order to build up a sufficient storage buffer.

This is shown by the EWI analysis “Gas Analysis – Update July 2026”. It assesses the situation on the European gas market on the basis of storage levels, the required LNG utilisation, the TTF forward curve and the global competition for LNG cargoes.

Storage as low as last in 2021

At the end of July 2026, storage facilities in the EU and the United Kingdom are around 55 percent full – for this date the second-lowest value since 2016; only in 2021 was it lower. The causes are a cold winter with high withdrawals and slow injection in spring. To build up a buffer of around 80 percent by 1 November – since the EU reform of 2025 the effectively decisive target value – around 275 terawatt hours of additional gas would be needed, most of which would have to be injected into storage.

LNG is the expensive marginal supply

This additional gas must come mainly from liquefied natural gas (LNG), because pipeline imports are limited and European production is declining. To achieve this, the utilisation of the import terminals would have to rise from currently around 29 to about 70 percent – that is, more than a doubling of imports. The bottleneck here is the available volumes, not the terminals: since March 2026 the Asian benchmark price JKM has been above the European TTF, so that Europe has to win back LNG cargoes in direct competition with Asia via the price.

“Europe has enough import terminals, but not automatically enough gas. Whether storage fills up in time is decided on the world market – and there Europe competes directly with Asia for the same cargoes,” says Hendrik Diers, Senior Research Associate at EWI. “As long as the conflict in the Middle East persists and demand does not ease, gas prices remain elevated and volatile; an easing is to be expected at the earliest after the winter.”