COLUMBUS

How are global natural gas trade flows and prices developing?
What happens when new pipelines are laid in a region or the gas demand rises sharply?
And how do supply disruptions affect gas prices?

The EWI model COLUMBUS is a long-term simulation model for the global gas market. It covers 99% of global natural gas demand and global natural gas supply and determines an economic equilibrium between gas exporters, infrastructure investors, and gas consumers. COLUMBUS represents global competition as a Cournot oligopoly and can be extended to analyze the international hydrogen market.

Figure 1: Import structure in Europe (illustrative)

COLUMBUS for Consulting and Research

COLUMBUS enables the analysis of global natural gas markets under various scenarios. This makes it possible to soundly assess geopolitical developments, infrastructure investments, and regulatory frameworks.

COLUMBUS in Practice:

Price development: scenario-based forecasts of global natural gas wholesale prices over medium- to long-term horizons
Infrastructure investment needs: assessment of pipeline, liquefaction, and regasification capacities
Trade and supply analysis: estimation of country-specific import and export balances as well as security of supply
Infrastructure utilization: examination of the use of cross-border points and LNG terminals (Liquefied Natural Gas)

COLUMBUS in Detail

COLUMBUS is a partial equilibrium model of the global natural gas market that models competition as a Cournot oligopoly. Gas-exporting countries strategically choose their export volumes and can exercise their market power. The model determines the resulting market equilibrium under the assumption that each market participant acts to maximize profit. This equilibrium is driven by short- and long-term marginal costs.

The input data include country-specific production, liquefaction, and regasification capacities, demand volumes, and existing long-term contracts. In addition, COLUMBUS represents aggregated cross-border capacities and individual tariffs for each cross-border point, as well as liquefaction and regasification tariffs in the LNG market.

Schematic Representation of the Model

Figure 2: Historical spot price and spot price development (illustrative)

The model has a country-specific resolution; domestic transport capacities are not taken into account. The temporal resolution is annual. Results include, among other things, annual wholesale prices for natural gas as well as trade flows by country or region. COLUMBUS can be coupled with the European gas infrastructure model TIGER to carry out more detailed analyses of the European market.