COLUMBUS

A long-term simulation model for the global gas market

COLUMBUS is a long-term simulation model for the global natural gas market. Taking into account worldwide interdependencies, the model predicts possible developments up to the year 2040.

COLUMBUS is a long-term simulation model for the global natural gas market. Taking into account worldwide interdependencies, the model predicts possible developments up to the year 2040. In addition to simulations on the annual level, it is also possible to perform calculations on the semi-annual, quarterly or monthly timescale. In doing so, the seasonal fluctuating demand profiles are able to be taken into account. In addition, the model extends the option to display the strategic behavior of some natural gas market participants.

The  model  takes  into  account  all  key  natural  gas  producing  countries  and  their  specific  characteristics  (e.g. production  costs, infrastructure connections, unconventional natural gas reserves). Furthermore, all relevant demand countries are included (approx. 99 percent of global demand). All required data for the model is continuously updated in the ewi ER&S database.

COLUMBUS is designed as a dynamic, spatial and intertemporal model. It is based on a mixed complementary programming approach (MCP). The model includes all key natural gas market fundamentals and characteristics, facilitating a comprehensive quantitative analysis of future market developments.
 

Possible applications

Trade flow projections

COLUMBUS simulates current and future global natural gas and LNG trade flows.

Infrastructure utilization

COLUMBUS determines capacity utilization of natural gas infrastructure such as storage, production facilities, pipelines and LNG terminals (export and import).

Demand for investment

COLUMBUS shows the amount and the geographical location of demand for investment in production fields, transport and storage infrastructure.

Price developments

COLUMBUS predicts medium- and long-term price developments (with or without strategic behavior of the different natural gas market participants).

Contact Persons

+49 (0)221 277 29-229