On behalf of INEOS in Cologne, EWI analysed the potential development of gas demand – in case the current level of ambition concerning the expansion of renewable energies and the decrease of reduction of energy consumption cannot be accelerated. First, three key mechanisms for achieving climate targets are identified: Decreasing energy consumption, electrification of the final energy consumption and increasing the share of renewable energies. Unfortunately, barriers like rebound effects, slow technology adaption rates and acceptance issues are often neglected. Energy demand could thus be underestimated. One possible outcome is a rising demand for natural gas and an increasing import share. A theoretical alternative to gas imports would be the exploration of unconventional gas sources (“fracking”) in Germany. However, the study concludes that the exploration of unconventional gas sources is unlikely due to environmental risks, public concerns and Germany’s geographical location close to cheap and abundant gas reserves.
