In the analysis ‘Impacts of the Building Energy Act on Residential Buildings,’ the EWI examines, in three scenarios, how the building sector could develop by the year 2030 if the draft of the Building Energy Act (GEG) from April 19, 2023, were implemented. The analysis focuses on the existing stock of heating systems, the building renovation rate, and greenhouse gas emissions in residential buildings. The second part of the analysis investigates critical success factors for implementing the GEG draft.
In the scenarios, the number of heat pumps could increase from 1.0 million in the year 2020 to up to 6.3 million in the year 2030. The number of district heating connections could rise from 1.3 million to up to 2.2 million. The number of oil and gas heating systems could decrease by up to 30 percent.
However, the scenarios cannot capture all critical success factors. The developments in the scenarios would, for example, require additional craftsmanship capacity, higher household investments, and prompt implementation of new district heating projects. However, the necessary conditions are not yet fully in place.