Fabian Arnold, M.Sc.
has been working as a Research Associate and as a doctoral candidate at EWI since 2018. In consulting projects for clients from the industry and public sectors, he has analyzed, e.g., the effects of a coal phase-out on the electricity market, carbon emissions and industry. He has advised, among others, the Ministry for Economy, Innovation, Digitalization and Energy of North Rhine-Westphalia (MWIDE). His research focus lies in economic and technical modeling of energy systems, local energy markets and households. Before joining EWI, Fabian Arnold studied Business Administration and Electrical Power Engineering at the RWTH Aachen University (Germany) and at the National Taiwan University of Science and Technology (Taipeh, Taiwan).
Client: Ministry of Economy, Innovation, Digitalization and Energy of the state of North Rhine-Westphalia (MWIDE)
Effects of the phase-out of coal-fired power generation by 2038 on the electricity market, CO2 emissions and selected industries
At the end of January, the Coal Commission presented its final report. The EWI examined the effects of that report on behalf of MWIDE NRW (Ministry of Economic Affairs, Innovation, Digitalisation and Energy of North Rhine-Westphalia). The European electricity market model DIMENSION+ was used to compare the developments of a reference scenario with those of the phase-out scenario. Based on this analysis and further investigation, an international comparison of electricity prices for selected power-intensive industries was made.
In the scenario analysis, the EWI reaches the following key results: The recommended exit path makes it possible to achieve the 2030 climate target for the energy sector even with a moderate increase in demand for electricity. Whereas this target is clearly missed in the reference scenario. However, in the coal phase-out scenario, an ambitious expansion of the number of peak-load power plants by 2025 is necessary in order to ensure security of supply. Electricity prices will rise significantly in both scenarios due to rising prices for CO2 certificates. For the German industrial companies considered, electricity prices are rising relatively strongly in both scenarios compared with foreign prices. Aid payments to compensate indirect CO2 costs (so-called electricity price compensation) can reduce the increase in electricity prices.